This is Ukraine-Adjacent research.
The recent attempted assassination of former President Donald Trump at his golf course is shocking in its audacity—but it’s important to point out the amateur nature of the shooter and his lack of serious preparation. What we have here is not a professional or even a well-thought-out plan but something closer to what I’d call a Live Action Role Player (LARP-er) with a gun. And while LARP-ers can still be dangerous, it's important to understand why this individual was not equipped for any real long-distance shooting.
The Wrong Tool for the Job
The alleged shooter was found with a Kalashnikov/SKS-style rifle. While these weapons have a reputation for durability and simplicity, they are not precision rifles designed for long-range engagements. In fact, it’s very likely the rifle in question was chambered in 7.62x39, a cartridge notorious for its poor long-distance performance.
And if this shooter wasn’t going to bother getting a rifle more suited for long-range shooting, it’s safe to assume they didn’t understand or care about using the right tool for the job. There’s a reason serious long-range shooters invest in specialized rifles, like bolt-action guns chambered in .308 or other higher-velocity calibers. If you show up with an AK variant to do long-range shooting, you're either woefully ignorant or playing dress-up. Especially considering a NEW scoped bolt action rifle can be had for less than $400.
It’s even less likely that the shooter opted for the more modern and effective AK-74 variant, which uses the 5.45x39mm cartridge, better suited for mid-range engagements. But even this variant isn’t ideal for long-distance, precision shooting, which makes the choice of weapon look even more like the shooter wasn’t serious—or didn’t know what they were doing.
Pink: Dust Cover Release, Red: Dust Cover, Blue: Rear Sight Mount, Brown: Gas Tube/Piston Housing
Kalashnikovs/SKSs Aren’t Designed for Precision
The gun design, whether we’re talking about the AK-47, SKS, or any other variation, was never intended for long-range precision shooting. These firearms are built to be simple, rugged, and effective in close- to medium-range combat. They are meant to be reliable in dirty, gritty, combat environments where accuracy beyond 100 yards isn’t the primary concern.
These rifles are primarily built with iron sights, and while iron sights are perfectly fine for shorter distances, they are not suited for long-range accuracy. More importantly, adding any sort of optic to these rifles is a lesson in futility.
Optics on a Kalashnikov/SKS: A Bad Idea
Let’s break down the options for mounting a scope or optic on a Kalashnikov/SKS-style rifle. There are essentially three common mounting points, and all of them are poor choices if you want to achieve any real accuracy:
Side Mount: Some AK-style rifles have a side rail on the receiver, which allows for an optic to be mounted using a side bracket. While this seems like a good option, it’s notorious for having stability issues. The side mount tends to loosen over time, which means the optic loses its zero, making long-distance accuracy virtually impossible.
Aftermarket Rail Mount (Over the Gas/Piston Tube): There are aftermarket options for rail mounts that sit over the gas tube of the rifle. This is a terrible idea because the gas tube isn’t designed to be a stable mounting platform. The cover flexes with every shot, so any optic mounted on it will shift constantly, making precise shooting beyond 100 yards more of a wish than a reality.
Rear Sight Base Mount: Another mounting option for AK/SKS involves attaching the optic to the rear sight base. This is problematic because the rear sight base doesn’t have enough surface area or purchase to ensure a reliable mount. It’s simply not designed to handle the weight and stability requirements for an optic. Over time, this will lead to zeroing issues, and the accuracy needed for long-range engagements just won’t be there.
None of these mounting points offer the durability or precision needed for serious long-distance shooting. Any attempt to mount a scope or optic to these rifles is mostly for show—again, bringing us back to the idea that this individual was essentially LARP-ing a long-range assassin.
Ballistics: The 7.62x39’s Limitations
Let’s talk about ballistics. The 7.62x39 round, the most likely cartridge used by the shooter, is notoriously bad at long-range shooting. It’s a powerful round for short distances, often effective up to 100 yards. However, once you stretch that out to 150 yards or more, the ballistics become problematic.
After about 150 yards, the 7.62x39 round starts to lose velocity dramatically—so much so that some experts say it’s like the bullet “falls off a table.” Beyond this range, the bullet drop becomes so extreme that even experienced shooters find it difficult to maintain accuracy without constant adjustments. And that’s in ideal conditions, ballistics test barrels are 24-26 inches long and offer optimal “closed bolt” performance. In a real-world scenario, with a short-barreled and reciprocating bolt AK or SKS, performance would be even worse.
Here’s a basic chart that shows just how limited the round is in long-range situations
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As you can see, the bullet’s performance falls off rapidly. This isn’t the type of round you would pick if you were planning a serious long-range shot of undetermined distance.
Conclusion: You Don’t Have to Be Good To Be Dangerous
For accuracy you want a closed/locked bolt(bolt action), ammo made for consistent long distance shooting, and an optics mounting point that has good purchase. The SKS and AK47/74 don’t have ANY OF THESE. You can make an accurate rifle that doesn’t have one of these. Semi Auto designs (not bolt action) can be very accurate. But not if the other two out of three necessities are ignored.
None of this should be taken to minimize the seriousness of the situation. Guns are tools. I can drive a nail with a heavy wrench, but a serious carpenter never would. He would use the appropriate tool for the job. In fact, an amateur carpenter or weekend DIY-er would also use the right tool. Understanding the limitations of this situation helps to bring some clarity to the headlines, but it also serves as a reminder that unprepared doesn’t mean harmless.
Benjamin Cook is a Ukraine war domain expert and researcher. He is currently working towards his PhD. Benjamin also holds a Masters in International Security and Conflict Studies.
While not normally a part of his Substack “resume,” Benjamin was also a gun store owner and gunsmith.