GUEST POST: Ukraine and a New Kind of War
Ukrainian Made Weapons Win the Black Sea
Back when I served two tours over Afghanistan and Iraq, we as AWACS crew needed to be aware of our Navy’s operations in the Persian Gulf. Specifically, we needed to be able to communicate and share air traffic track information with Aegis cruisers. These cruisers are the primary sea to air defense for our navy, along with a lot of other important countermeasures. The biggest we could imagine, should insurgents or Iranian forces try to attack the fleet, would have been a swarm of small kamikaze boats loaded with explosives. In those days, AWACS had some ways to assist with such a threat, but they were rather primitive. Yet our Navy felt like they were prepared for all sorts of innovative attack strategies against the fleet.
Russia probably felt like they were prepared. They were prepared for all sorts of attacks conventional and unconventional. Yet they were not prepared for Ukrainian ingenuity. In this discussion we are going to talk about two Ukrainian-made assets which changed the course of the war in the Black Sea, and re-opened free trade in the region: The Neptune Cruise Missile, and their fleet of Naval Drones. Keep in mind this is not to downplay Ukraine’s need for Western weapons and equipment. It is to point out that they are innovative enough to produce and use their own weapons to great effect, so imagine what they could do with access to a larger arsenal of innovative weapons made even thirty years ago right here in the United States.
Early in the war, the Neptune missile likely delivered a critical blow to the Russian Navy. I use the word “likely” because I can validate the information. (But cannot share the sources.)
This is a step up from sharing the Ukrainian side of the story and the Russian side and then leaving it up to you to decide who to trust. The difference between the Ukrainian narrative and the Russian one is that different Ukrainian sources declared the same victory without coordinating with each other, (to include a facebook account) while the Russian response primarily comes from the mouth of Russian state media after the fact. I am declaring here, the Ukrainian account of this victory should be considered closest to the truth.
On 13 April 2022, just seven weeks after Roman Hrubov told the Russian Cruiser to go fuck itself, the Moskva suffered a severe explosion on the port side. Fires spread over the ship with an aging fire system unable to meet the demand, and ammunition ignited. A few surviving crew members reported casualties, but the number was never specified. Most of the crew was indeed evacuated from the crippled ship, which eventually overturned and sank on 14 April in the rough seas. Ukraine announced to the world that two of its Neptune missiles had hit their the target, causing “very serious damage.”
Let’s take a closer look at the Neptune, and I will break down for you how these weapons took the Russian flagship by surprise. Ukraine adapted an older Russian cruise missile, the Kh-35 antiship missile, and improved upon it, giving it avionics based on western designs and extending its range. The unclassified range for the Neptune is 200 Kilometers. Any time you find the unclassified range of a weapon, it is safe to assume the classified range is a larger number. In 2025 Ukraine upgraded the anti-ship missile again, dubbing the missile the “long Neptune” the unclassified range became 1000km.
The missile is launched from an unassuming and frankly ugly tube launcher attached to a massive heavy truck. The missile has the range, is very mobile, and it packs a punch with a 150kg warhead. That will tear a hole in the side of any modern ship. This missile is designed to kill big ships. The Neptune is a formidable piece of Ukrainian engineering, but could it really get past the defenses of a state-of-the art, Russian cruiser?
First, we must consider the range. The regional governor of Odessa, Maksem Marchenko, claimed the missiles were fired from his oblast and struck the cruiser. The Moskva did indeed sink about 80nm south of Odessa—well within the range of the missiles.
The Moskva led a task force of two other guided missile cruisers and one frigate. We know this because the rescue ships for the Moskva crew are all named. Therefore, our two cruise missiles not only need to defeat the defenses of the Moskva, but several other ships armed with anti-cruise missile defenses. Modern warships have long range cruise missile defense in the form of counter missiles like the Russian SA-N-6 Grumble (S-300F) or the case of the United States, rolling airframe missiles (RAM), chaff, electronic attack, or in some cases even lasers.
Believe it or not, American Ships have almost fallen prey to cruise missiles more than a few times, so our military can imagine several mistakes the Moskva may have made. One of the more famous examples comes on the evening of may 17th 1987 to the USS Stark. There is a great video on this event here. Take a look at it and then return to finish this article.
USS Stark Hit by Two Iraqi Exocet Missiles, 1987 - Animated
We can imagine a similar scenario as this for the Moskva, only the rough seas and weather prevent the Russian cruiser from being saved. Even more recently, a Houthi cruise missile far less sophisticated than the Neptune, made it within a mile of the US destroyer USS Gravely before being shot down by auto-targeted Phalanx machine guns proudly made by my company, Raytheon. The Moskva has a similar machine gun defense system called the AK-630 cannon, but it would seem the Moska did not have as much luck as the USS Gravely. Since machine guns like the AK-630 and the Phalanx auto-target incoming missiles, the easiest way to defeat the system is to overwhelm it. American tactical minds estimated that in order to attack the Moskva, you would need to launch eleven Neptune cruise missiles simultaneously to get through the defenses with 5 missiles and sink the ship.
Ukraine fired two and hit with two. The reason they were able to do this probably had something to do with a coordinated strike involving drones. Ukraine did not quite have the innovative drone fleet in 2022 as it did three years later, although the Toloka TLK-150' drone torpedo and other Ukrainian navy drones would have been in development and near completion. At the time, Ukraine was relying on Turkish TB-2 drones to patrol the skies. By all accounts, tacticians suggest the TB2 was used to great effect to help confuse the targeting and tracking of the black sea fleet. While American intelligence also probably helped provide a good window to strike, (most likely coming from a P8- Poseidon in the area) Ukraine had practiced coordinating TB-2 maritime recon in conjunction with their Neptune Missile. After all these paragraphs of set up, I will now give you my analysis of what happened.
In April of 2022 Mariupol had all but fallen, with the last defenders stubbornly holding on to the Azovstal Iron and Steel Works factory. (A tale of heroes for another time). However, a large push west to take Odessa had been repulsed. If Odessa fell, Russia would have both key ports. There are many reports and indications that Russia might attempt an amphibious assault on Odessa. United States tactical experts believed such an operation would have been a disaster for Russia, but Ukraine was not taking any chances. Under cover of darkness, they moved two launchers through the city and fired one missile each from two different locations. The launches would look like an anti-aircraft response to a city being targeted by cruise missiles. The Moskva was on a probing patrol, and the mind of the crew would have been focused on making sure they could get into position to launch missiles on Odessa during an amphibious invasion. Otherwise, the cruiser had no business coming within 80nm of the city. If the crew of the Moskva detected TB-2 drones in the area, they were probably focused on long range defenses. One Neptune missile struck the port side near the bow, but the other hit the port magazine, igniting ammunition and killing the 17 crewmembers.
Three years later Russia’s Black Sea fleet is in shambles. What remains of it has retreated to eastern Crimea, and now they do battle with Ukrainian drone boats with speed boats armed with grenade launchers. In the coming weeks, I will be looking at the effectiveness of the Ukrainian Magura naval drone and the Tolka TLK150 Submarine drone. For Ukrainian innovative weapons design continues to keep their enemy on the back foot.
Works Cited
"Russian warship Moskva on fire but afloat, Pentagon says". The Guardian. 14 April 2022. Archived from the original on 14 April 2022. Retrieved 17 April 2022.
Hambling, David (14 April 2022). "Ukraine's Bayraktar Drone Helped Sink Russian Flagship Moskva". Forbes. Archived from the original on 23 July 2022. Retrieved 23 July 2022.
See more of Travis Hightower here: https://substack.com/@thewritingref
Thank you for your analytical and researched examination of the sinking. Slava Ukraini!
Thanks so much for having me. Its an honor to collaborate with someone who has met the heroes of Ukraine in person.