Ukraine Inflicts $8 Billion in Damage to Russian Strategic Air
That's like sinking the USS Ronald Reagan, twice.
It’s important to note that info is still very much coming in. It’s impossible to know exactly how much equipment is damaged or destroyed at this time.
June 1 will be an important day for many reasons. Ukraine is known for audacious attacks, but today’s strike on Russian strategic assets makes the Kerch Bridge attack look like child’s play. June 1 will also be the day that military base commanders realize they can’t secure their bases with current tactics and capabilities.
In a single operation, Ukraine damaged or destroyed more than 30% of Russia’s strategic air assets. I’ve seen the figure of $8,000,000,000 used to represent the value of these losses. If that’s accurate, it’s the equivalent of sinking the USS Ronald Reagan—twice—or shooting down more than 80 F-35s.
How did they do it? Reports suggest Ukraine loaded Russian trucks with boxes containing small FPV-type drones. Then, when the trucks arrived at their destinations near the targets, a cover was removed—possibly by GPS and mobile networks—and the drones flew away. There is video of this. See below.
Reports also suggest that some of the attack journey was automated, while some segments may have been piloted. Both are plausible, and there’s no reason to assume one is more likely than the other.
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Further, sources claim this operation was planned for more than a year. The FPVs and other equipment were smuggled into Russia.
Why is this operation important?
Less attack vectors for Russia. Russia probably keeps one plane in the air for ever 3 planes they have. If the SBU did good intel before hand they will know which birds are operational. This attack could ground more than 50% of all of Russia strategic air.
Russia doesn’t really have $8 billion to spare. This will hurt. This isn’t $8 billion over 4 years. This is $8 billion in a day.
Ukraine and Russia are set to meet TOMORROW in Istanbul. This changes the math for these negotiations.
It changes how the world views base security and hybrid/asymmetrical operations. The counter drone industry just made billons of dollars. It just doesn’t know it yet.
How will Russia respond?
More attacks on civilians.
More ballistic missile attacks
More nuclear saber rattling. These were STRATEGIC assets. This puts Russia at risk of being invaded by China. They will say NATO, but they actually mostly worry about China.
Threats and tantrums tomorrow at the meeting in Istanbul.
More asymmetrical and hybrid attacks on the West.
Benjamin Cook continues to travel to, often lives in, and works in Ukraine, a connection spanning more than 14 years. He holds an MA in International Security and Conflict Studies from Dublin City University and has consulted with journalists and intelligence professionals on AI in drones, U.S. military technology, and open-source intelligence (OSINT) related to the war in Ukraine. He is co-founder of the nonprofit UAO, working in southern Ukraine. You can find Mr. Cook between Odesa, Ukraine; Charleston, South Carolina; and Tucson, Arizona.
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Seems like an arduous and time-consuming project. It must be so gratifying to those involved to see it function as designed.
This was a beautiful and technically exquisite maneuver! Love to Ukraine. What a leader Zelensky! 💖