NATO or Nuke, Ukraine's Only Options

NATO allies should fully expect Ukraine to produce a nuclear arsenal in the absence of NATO membership.

In 1994 leaders from Russia, Ukraine, the US and the UK agreed to protect Ukraine should it ever be invaded in exchange for Ukraine giving up its nukes. It was called the Budapest Memorandum of Security Assurances. Once completed, the US, wanting to engage with Ukraine post Soviet collapse, supported the creation of the NATO-Ukraine Commission. (The NATO-Ukraine Council is what was started in 2023.)

These efforts did not help Ukraine keep Russia from invading. Nor is there any clear sign that current support will expel Russia short of a palace coup inside Russia.

The US and the UK failed to live up to the agreement in 2014, and again in 2022. The might of the current coalition of partners from all over the world giving billions to Ukraine has not removed Russia from Ukraine. The removal of Russia and the rebuilding of Ukraine will easily reach the trillion dollar mark. (What would it have cost to kick Russia out of Georgia in 2008, Crimea and the Donbas in 2014?)

The lesson Ukraine and other nations will learn from this is that short of an “Article 5” NATO-style security agreement, nations’ words and signatures can’t and shouldn’t be trusted.

Uranium Mine in Ukraine

There is no country that can go from zero-to-bomb faster than Ukraine. It has no shortage of nuclear scientists. Ukraine has its own uranium mining operations. It’s military industrial base will be second to only the US and China in the near future. Most of all, it’s aware of the consequences if it does not go nuclear. Let’s be clear, Ukraine is NOT Iran. It is more capable and more motivated.

The final piece of Ukraine’s nuclear puzzle is secrecy. This will be difficult. The US and other allies will not want Ukraine to develop “the bomb”. Ukraine is part of NPT, Non Proliferation Treaty. Unlike all the list of countries that tried to develop the bomb in secrecy, Ukraine has an advantage. It is exactly the United States, USSR/Russia, China, France, and the United Kingdom who have failed Ukraine the most. These five nations are supposed to be the only ones with nuclear weapons. Enter Israel, India, Pakistan, and North Korea.

Each of these nations developed their own bomb despite restrictions from the west. Despite threats and tantrums of world leaders. Despite the difficulty to get the highly controlled and necessary materials beyond uranium. Each of these countries’ programs was eventually found out. Secrecy will be key to success, for a time. Then resolve will be the most important component to a successful nuclear program.

Of all the stories about developing a nuclear weapons program in opposition to the US and the west, the Israeli story is probably the best analog. Why? Because Ukraine will likely have the ability to negotiate, obfuscate, and delay until the point of success, just like Israel. What’s more, the British helped Israel develop its program. Someone somewhere will also help Ukraine, because the Ukrainian need for a program is unique. Just like Israel’s need was unique. What’s more Ukraine, like Israel, will need to have a policy of Deliberate Ambiguity. 

None of this needs to happen. All Ukraine needs is an “article 5” type trigger that requires nations to come to their aid if anyone attacks. And… it must in fact be a TRIGGER. Not a decision based on committee consultations lasting months. The force must be NATO, or NATO-like. Anything short of this and Ukraine will have no choice but to develop a nuclear weapons program.

NOTE: The links provided describing the Budapest Memorandum of Security Assurances are a great read. NONE of this commentary from the IAEA and the Woodrow Wilson Center ages well. It is now a testament to the abject failure of the west to live up to its commitments.